Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
